Type | Example | With Respect to |
Inefficient | Apple???/An Equity | The average person. HFs can still take advantage of this, gathering specialized information. |
Unexploitable |
Shorting Real Estate/Bad Monetary Policy (Japan Example).
It is adequate to the point where there are not a lot of underpriced houses because you aren’t able to short a single house.
|
No financial product exists to short things. CDS/funds can take advantage of a systematic level |
Inadequate | Current State of Venture Funding, Colleges as Credentialing systems and the US Healthcare industry. | The normal “in-game” view, God’s View or benevolent dictator can overcome |
I’m personally not as bullish for developing countries as leading indicator as early adopters. As weird as it sounds, they need cryptocurrencies too much. My mental model for early adopters are the ones that like toys, the weirdos, the rich people and more that are willing to accept the flaws in the product. There’s something about intrinsic motivation as opposed to extrinsic motivation that drives the sickness and retention of a product/technology. I would much rather look towards the high-risk tolerance ICO investors than look towards traditional business and crypto “enterprise alliances”.
Research is really expensive, a public good, and has nastier power law returns than startups. The graph above shows revenues generated by patents, the step that comes after publicly funded research. It took 10k patents produced at Northwestern at a yearly cost of at least $675 million dollars to produce one patent with licensing revenue of $1B/yr. That's a cost of $67,000 per patent to get this holy grail.
[1] https://ethresear.ch/t/casper-validator-yield-as-a-function-of-td-and-issuance/222
In a new possible Ethereum fork, will all the ERC20 fork too?
— Nicola Greco (@nicolagreco) January 18, 2018
If so, will they have internal wars on what fork they want to be on?
You can "get" a PhD in eighty books. 5 books per semester, 4 years undergrad and 4 years grad. 2 * 5 * (4 + 4) = 80.
— Dillon Chen (@dillchen) November 1, 2017
If you read "Confessions of a Sociopath", you will wear the sociopaths mask. For some, you may that it fits your face perfectly. You may gain answers to some pesky questions that you’ve always wondered about yourself. If not, you may be disgusted and off put, but you will certainly wonder more about the man on the train with a certain glint in his eye. What is he thinking? How does he feel—if anything?
In blockchain terms, you could conceive of merge mining as extended uncle resolution. In the GHOST Protocol, the individual uncle hash power is added to the winning block's score. Uncle miner still is incentivized, they get some proportion of the block reward. Likewise, people who contribute to the "losing token" are still incentivized. When you think of merging chains, you're still incentivizing a smaller chain's absorption into the larger chain. While protocols can directly implement the necessary hard/soft forks to include the rule set change of a fork, they won't have the now differentiated userbase etc.
Roadblocks to putting this in practice.
2/ One of the biggest weaknesses in my whole methodology right now is the discount rate for #cryptoassets. It's more-or-less arbitrary
— Chris Burniske (@cburniske) June 17, 2017
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Look here as well
We call this a softmerge cc @desantis https://t.co/adExcUaqve
— Mark Wilcox (@mwilcox) June 16, 2017
Hard-spoon: a new chain that takes into account state from an existing chain; not to compete, but to provide broad access @VitalikButerin
— jae kwon (@jaekwon) September 15, 2017
How can a blockchain gracefully terminate? Can it just pass on its assets somehow to a succeeding blockchain?
— Andrew Miller [YES2X (@socrates1024) August 23, 2017
Since crypto assets are extremely liquid and can be instantaneously changed into some other digital asset, it's tempting to do so. Unless you're a day trader in the top 1%, you'll probably lose money. With all the complexity in dealing with crypto assets, a person's best bet is usually to hold, or rather HODL. In this case, individuals are hoping that the base crypto asset that they purchase appreciates in the future. HODLing is basically stashing your coins under your mattress, which many of my friends have expressed as their dominant investment strategy.
However, if we compare this to a traditional asset like cash, that can earn interest by sitting in a bank, stashing your cryptos under a mattress doesn't seem too enticing. No one's really figured out a way to earn interest by HODLing for this, of course, we’re not the only ones to have this thought.
Lending Right Now
And that’s about it! Thanks for reading.
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Related Protocols
Sometime during the summer, a friend of mine questioned if young founders (let's say younger than 26) would be able to develop the biggest startups of the future. The argument was that startups of the future will trend towards hard tech. Technologies like biotech, robotics, AI, and material science each take years to build domain expertise, not to mention capital intensive. Both those form barriers for young founders to get started. Contrast this with the recent history of companies centered in information technology/internet startups. We all have the image of genius hacker developing applications as a teenager. This was (and still is) an open industry, where the tools for development are literally on everyone's desktop. With all that said, it sounds like we have to say goodbye to the garage startup. So are there any reasons for us to be optimistic about the young founder of the future?
In the past 20 years, there have been many examples of student founders. Michael Dell, Bill Gates, Woz, and Steve Jobs all come to mind. Yet, it's hard to think of examples that stretch outside of this range, but we should fall prey to availability bias.
"The first set comprises problems that are solved by an emotional state (poetry, painting), by loading a very difficult single framework into your head (math, physics, coding), and / or competition (driven by sex drive and time-sensitive). The latter set are more rational, are systems problems rather than point problems, and don’t have time-sensitive competition. " - Naval
"Modern entrepreneurship, especially web entrepreneurship, is extremely competitive / time sensitive, requires enormous amounts of iteration even withina single product life-cycle, and often requires solving many challenging technicaland business problems one after the other in a public view (with the opposite sex watching). So, it favors the young and single." - Naval
After a founder uses those basic tools of infrastructure to find an idea that looks like it could be impactful they leverage new funding mechanisms to can scale more quickly. The funding of innovative ideas has long been concentrated in the hands of a few. Governments once reigned supreme in funding things, as we became wealthier this trickled down to wealthy individuals, then to professional risk investors, and now to individuals in the form of crowd sales, Kickstarters, and most recently app-coin sales. If you accept the idea no one can judge innovation at the earliest of stages--that VCs and angels are using basic heuristics to cull bad startups as opposed to picking winners--then new funding mechanisms can. Free flow of capital through crowdfunding, more diversified risk at the seed stage benefits allows for more companies to get created.
Here are a few things that we don't know. If you are working on any of them, I'd be curious to learn more.
Media when concentrated in a few individuals or the state has always been subject to censorship/influence whether by direct action or inaction. Western Union, China, and Napoleon are a few prominent examples. Now we have Facebook. The press lauded Facebook and Twitter when it influenced the Arab Spring, but is chafing at social media’s power now that it’s come to influence our politics in the States.
Blockchain Social Apps | |||
Front End | One (Money made up here with ads) | One (Money made up here with ads) | Many |
Algos | One | Many | Many |
Token/access to data | None | None | Money made down here with increasing data/users |
Data/Blockchain | Have to guard this | Free to share | Share freely/forkable |
College is a pretty stressful and uncertain time. And if you’ve heard anything about how cut-throat an environment Penn is, then you know how much people worry about their futures. Am I freaking out a bit? Are my friends freaking out a bit? Yea. But this essay isn’t about commiserating that experience directly. It’s about what we do when we face these uncertain times. Usually, we look for answers on Google, in churches, older peers, parents, and even fortune cookies. We look to anyone and anything that might have pertinent advice. Yet for all the so-called advice we get, why doesn’t much of it seem to stick?
Take advice from people whose shoes people want to be in. The future is indeterminate. In ten years, I could see myself as a startup entrepreneur, a VC, or even doing something in public policy. Therefore the cross-section of people that I'd seek advice career advice from is large. After asking and compiling advice from multiple sources, I try to discern the experience behind the advice, look for ways in which the advice breaks, make sure the incentives of people dispensing advice align with mine, and not ask for more advice before changing my own behavior. And in the case that their advice conflicts, as it often will, I will just go with my gut. I do this because I know that it probably either I'm asking for the wrong advice or that the decision point of the advice leads is inconsequential, or both. Not overanalyzing the situation can be tough when deciding whether or not to drop out of school. In the case that their own actions conflict with their own advice, it matters even less what course of action we take. Advice is just a data point as every situation is different. Being able to live with your decision is what's most important in the end (Thanks Demps).
]]>Before finals last year, I traveled to Belize to escape school. I felt the full force of the 100% humidity and the sun beating down on our backs at a scalding 97 degrees. Trouble began to brew as our car rental fell through. It wasn't turning out to be the relaxing getaway we thought it'd be. Luckily, we got a car from Pauncho's, a local car rental service, at double the normal insurance premium. We soon pulled away the airport, and set our sites on a long drive.
Belize is undeniably beautiful. Glancing up from the road, I caught glimpses of lush greenery and huge mountains in the distance. And later in the trip, we spent time in a rainforest tree house, surrounded by the all the coos and croaks from all sides. However, this beauty was juxtaposed by the conditions of the towns we visited. I saw weather-worn houses and one-room schools deprived of access to internet. On the trip, we paid a huge premium for this privilege: $70 for a hotspot and 2GB of data. This was a luxury that many of the people I was surrounded by wouldn't be able to acquire. While meditating on that, I caught up with the connected world.
I read about how solar energy was spreading around the developing world due to low-cost Chinese panels and about the new release of the 21 Bitcoin Computer. The "21" press release had a quote that stuck with me--"a miner in every chip and device". Sometime while reading this article, a flash of inspiration hit. I envisioned an integrated system to give access to the internet and electricity for free--a solar panel, embedded cryptocurrency miner, battery, and Wifi/3G access point. We would give the device and internet services away for free and earn money by mining cryptocurrency with free solar-generated electricity.
While we have 5 billion phones on the planet, developing nations around the world not only pay the highest costs per capita for smartphone usage but also for merely powering those phones. We know that the smartphone is everyone's gateway to the internet. However, the internet that you and I use at home is not what those in the developing world use. Phones are often unable to update their firmware because the cost of that download alone would eat up an entire month of data. Data plans can cost as much as 37% of a worker's salary per month in the developing world, and in rural areas, this is even more stark. These areas often don't have access to cellular service at all. I know this not only from months living in my ancestral farm town in China but also from this recent experience in Belize.
I recently ran a back of the envelope model to test the feasibility of this design. Thanks to increasing solar panel efficiency, decreasing hardware costs, cheap computing power, new 4G/LTE/Wifi satellites, and Bitcoin, the numbers seem to work. We could potentially give everyone in the world access to today's essential utilities--free internet, electricity, and access to a global financial system. Who knows if this idea will end up working, but the potential seems pretty great :) If anyone has any info to invalidate this idea, please do so; in the meantime, I'll be learning more about the crypto price dynamics, satellite internet, and reliability of hotspots. Then moving on to building a prototype!
]]>If I had to compare the development of the synthetic biology/biotech stack to that of the computer, I would say we’re still pretty early. In biology, we’re in the big mainframe era, before the development of the transistor and integrated circuit.
Biology Today | Mainframe Era | |
Long Dev. Cycle Times/Sharing resources | Waiting for western blots and gels to run… Waiting for cultures to grow. Few hours to a few days. | Trying to get mainframe time to run programs. Few hours to a few days. |
Low Debugging | No idea if an organism works until actually produced (no in silico modeling) | Punch Cards!!! and No compiler |
Low reusability/reliability of parts | Genes often don’t work outside of their original organism | Vaccuum tubes get moths stuck in them |
Fragmented community | Limited hackers, mostly stuck within universities | limited hackers, mostly stuck within universities |
Low Abstraction | Individual Gene Sequences | Punch Cards/Machine Code |
Low Complexity of Programs |
Today: Yeast that makes beer and a scent |
Then: Computing missile trajectories |
I had the good fortune of spending a lot of time with my extended family this past holiday season. A group of twelve with ages ranging from four to eighty-plus were shuttled down to DisneyWorld.
"Are we having fun yet?"
It was endearing to see my youngest cousin's eyes light up as we explored the amusement park in between her bouts of crying. However, my next youngest cousin, age thirteen, did not share this same sense of wonderment. Instead, he was obsessed with maximizing the number of likes on his Instagram photos. The eldest among us, the young Baby Boomers were also stuck on their phones browsing WeChat. Although the samples sizes are small, each generation had a different relationship to their phones, but used their phone no less than any other group.
Generation Z kids were virtually born with their smart phones in their hands. They think Facebook is too confusing, but as they enter HS, they'll be forced to use it. Sorry kids. Facebook is the New Linkedin (which is the New Email). After getting off of Aladdin's Magic Carpet ride, we went to go cool off by getting Dole Whip, pineapple flavored ice cream. As soon we got the Dole Whip into our hands, my twelve year old cousin was taking pictures to post to Instagram. He continued to edit, filter, and post Instagram photos ASAP. I quizzed him on his strategies to garner more likes on Instagram and he talked about how specific times during the day were better and worse, how he had multiple accounts to drive traffic (read: SPAM), how he'd use Instagram Direct to organize group chats, and would add hashtags on hashtags on each photo. While older folks might share that they ate Dole Whip in casual conversation around the water cooler, he wanted to share in real-time. Just goes to show that internet really is everywhere.
Millennials grew up on a desktop computer. We might be able to put their phones down while waiting in line, but probably not. We talk mostly with friends through groupchats and Snapchat. On my own phone, I kept up with college friends in several different GroupMe's. Sometimes simultaneously sending chats back and forth with the same friends in different GroupMe Groups. To a certain extent, we're caught in the middle conscious of when we use our phones, but still trying to share things on Snapchat in the moment. We browse Facebook as a last resort and mostly while at home. We're the only ones who think it's a good idea to carry around a DSLR, the other groups stick to using their phones. We're still trying to outgrow our hipster phase.
(Yung) Baby Boomers. These folks came to internet and mobile phone late in their lives, and as a result of that unfortunate occurrence, their thumbs aren't as fully developed as the younger generations. Because of that, Baby Boomers are forced to poke at their screens with their pointer fingers. Although this trait makes me laugh, it is actually an advantage while browsing their app of choice, WeChat. WeChat employs a heavy text interface, with several layers of menus and lists that need to be carefully navigated to post the pictures and chat in group chats. A fat thumb is just not up to this task. These Baby Boomers also favor voice conversations when trying to make the smallest of smallest of small talk. They treat their text messages as an email inbox, by allowing unread messages to pile up. While I'd be compelled to tap at each blue dot, my mom has no problem letting hundreds of messages go unopened.
While these groups may have the same apps downloaded, their habits across apps greatly varies. The metaphors they bring from their previous experiences with tech inform how they'll use their phones. For me, the best moments of our trip were times when we put our phones down phones and share cringeworthy family jokes.
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Thanks to Josh Lee for reading a draft of this.
]]>A few weeks ago, the Guesstimate beta came out. It's pretty cool; it’s like Excel with Crystal Ball built right in. You can input a single number or a range of values and build models with it. Guesstimate’s release and the holiday season gave me the perfect chance to explore an idea on the startup industry. I had been meaning to building a model to understand the formation and development of a startup to its eventual failure or exit.
I recently visited around fifteen companies in SF — small startups just past series A to 20-year old internet companies — without dropping any names, here are some observations.
Authentic belief in a company’s mission — that one’s work is actually important — is different than the normal lip service that companies pay when talking about “changing the world”. Culture isn’t just letting dogs in your office, or nice couches, or wearing Hawaiian shirts. You can literally smell the culture. It’s in the air, written on people’s faces, in how they speak and act. It’s imbued from the top-down through founding stories and values. As well as also from the bottom-up from the interactions between co-workers and visitors . Everyone’s attitude influenced the overall culture, positively or negatively. We all know that communication is 85% percent body language — culture is communicated non-verbally as well.
It’s seems very, very hard to keep missionary cultures as companies grow. Finding engineers is hard enough, but finding engineers is harder still when they need to believe in the mission. Finding engineers is tripley hard when a company is also quadrupling in size. Everywhere we went had smart people, that was clear. However, challenging them to do great work and getting them to believe is hard. The “craziness” of the mission (not a scientific measure) seemed directly correlated with the quality of people.
A focus on metrics and product direction lent a sense of urgency to everyday activity. We visited a company where in the center of the office, the hockey stick was prominently featured. It’s a visual reminder of where the company is, where the company has been, and how the company is doing. Without a view of the metrics, they could kid themselves into believing that they were doing well. There was a huge difference between the companies talked a big game of growth and those that could actually show outsiders their growth.
With all that said, here are a couple of my suggested ingredients for what makes a great culture: founder myths — the trials and tribulations of what the founders had to do to create change in the world (i.e. hero’s journey), missionary people — people who believe they are doing something for others, heaps of trust, a focus towards continual improvement, and luck.
Getting the culture right seems really, really hard, but seems vital to getting real work done.